By Costa S. Tzotzis
July tested investors’ patience and conviction. The month ended roughly where it started for most indexes — but the journey was anything but smooth.
July 1st – 31st, 2026
| Market | Close | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 5000 | 7,489.72 | ▼ -0.10% |
| Dow | 52,485.03 | ▲ +0.30% |
| Nasdaq | 25,373.85 | ▼ -3.20% |
| Gold | $4,046.00 | ▼ -1.39% |
| WTI Oil | $84.67 | ▲ +20.56% |
| 10Y Treasury | 4.731% | ▲ +0.348 |
| VIX | 15.99 | ▼ -13.15% |
On paper, July looked like a mixed month. The Dow added a modest 0.3% — its fourth consecutive monthly gain — but the S&P 500 edged slightly lower, and the Nasdaq Composite fell over 3%. Those headline numbers, however, hid a month that was volatile, headline-driven, and at times deeply uncomfortable for investors.
The story of July was really two stories running at the same time — and they pulled markets in opposite directions all month long.
The first story was oil and geopolitics. The Iran conflict, which had appeared to be moving toward resolution in late June, escalated sharply in July. U.S. military strikes resumed, Iran responded, and energy markets reacted immediately. WTI crude oil surged over 20% for the month — its strongest monthly gain since March — climbing from below $71 a barrel to nearly $85 by month’s end. That kind of move in oil has consequences that ripple through everything: inflation expectations, consumer spending, Federal Reserve policy, and investor sentiment. It dominated the month.
The second story was earnings. And here, the news was better than expected. The major banks kicked off the quarter with strong results in mid-July, and by month’s end, several of the largest technology companies had reported results that beat estimates, with cloud computing and AI-driven revenue emerging as the key drivers. The message from earnings was clear: the investment in AI infrastructure is beginning to generate real returns. That gave markets something to hold onto during an otherwise difficult month.
The Federal Reserve held rates steady at its July meeting, as widely expected. But Chair Warsh’s tone was hawkish — the Fed made clear it is not satisfied with where inflation stands, and that a rate hike later this year remains a live possibility. Bond markets responded sharply. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed from 4.38% at the start of the month to 4.73% by month’s end, its highest level since January 2025. That kind of move in yields puts pressure on growth stocks and raises the cost of capital across the economy.
Technology stocks felt it. The Nasdaq-100 — the tech-heavy index — fell nearly 7% for the month, its steepest monthly decline in over a year. A combination of rising rates, concerns about AI spending returns, and a sharp mid-month selloff in semiconductors drove the losses. The VIX, our measure of market anxiety, briefly crossed above 20 mid-month — historically a signal worth paying attention to — before settling back below 16 by month’s end as earnings results and a brief easing of geopolitical tensions helped restore calm.
Gold pulled back slightly on the month, giving up a small portion of its 2026 gains as the stronger dollar and rising yields reduced its appeal as a safe haven.
The month ended on a positive note. A strong Friday rally fueled by Amazon and several AI infrastructure companies helped close July with some momentum heading into August.
August brings a packed calendar of data that will go a long way toward shaping the market’s direction for the rest of the year:
As we move through the second half of the year, we remain constructive on the broader market. Pullbacks in technology and AI-related themes have historically been met with renewed buying interest, and we don’t expect that dynamic to change. Rotation is a normal and healthy part of any bull market — not every sector moves at the same time. When sell-offs come, we view them as opportunities to invest in the themes and companies we believe in for the long term. Volatility is the price of admission. We remain focused, patient, and engaged on your behalf.